Q4 business planning: summer learnings and holiday prep

With summer rapidly coming to an end, thoughts are turning to the upcoming holiday season. For many SMBs, performing well in this period – or not – can have a significant impact on the overall finances for the year. So, it’s crucial to get it right.

At this point in the calendar, it can be useful to look back at what’s been working so far, what hasn’t, and what adjustments you need to make. Then, you can take those learnings into your Q4 business planning to help make sure you hit the festive season running. Your finances, inventory, marketing, logistics and peak-period coping strategies could all come under the spotlight as you plot your way to achieving your full potential.

But where do you start? And what strategies need to put in place to ensure your business is set fair for the rest of the year – and beyond? For some practical guidance, follow this three-step guide to help ensure your end-of-year business planning hits the mark.

Now is a great time for SMBs to see what’s been working well through spring and summer, and what lessons can be learned as you go into autumn and winter.

When conducting a review, it’s a good idea to prepare in advance, making sure you have all the financial data to hand. Then you can start to assess your performance – including whether you are hitting your goals, targets and financial forecasts – to judge whether you are on track for the year.¹

It’s also worth considering your strategic planning during this process – is it having the desired results? You can complete a SWOT analysis to better understand your business environment and help you to make any necessary changes.²

Now is a good time for SMBs to dig deeper into recent trends. What products are performing well? Have you noticed any demand spikes or dips at certain periods? Are consumers responding to your marketing? Have you learned any new insights from customers? Whatever you can glean from questions such as these can be factored into your year-end business planning.

You should also take a close look at how your supply chain has been performing. Were you overstocked or understocked – and if so, why? You may need to up your forecasting game, for example, or take steps to improve supplier reliability to ensure you can maximise Q4 potential.

With detailed information on your recent financial and operational performance to hand, you’re able to apply those learnings to your holiday season preparation. For example, do you need to adjust your targets – upwards or downwards – and reassess your resource allocation?3 Can you build on product and marketing successes seen in the summer by refocusing efforts in Q4?

If you’re revising your goals, make sure they are SMART (Specific, Measurable, Achievable, Relevant, and Time-bound). This can give you a strong framework to turn ambition into results.

With learnings-to-date on board, you can now turn your attention fully to preparing for Q4, including the all-important festive season. There’s a lot to consider for any small business strategy, but three important areas could include:

Lots of consumers leave Christmas shopping until the last minute. In fact, research from 2024 suggests that fewer than 3-in-10 people expected to have finished their Christmas shopping by December 18.⁴ So it’s important that you can cope should you be inundated in the last days before Christmas.

To give you the best chance, it’s essential to get a firm grip on your forecasting to ensure your inventory levels are just right. But also think about whether you need to add extra storage capacity or make advance plans with suppliers to ensure they can cater to your needs.

Getting your staffing levels right over the festive season is vital. If it’s going to be busy, you’ll want to ensure you have the numbers to cope and that those employees are able to give 100%.

So, think in advance about the skills you need and any temporary workers you may need to bring in, and ensure you act in plenty of time. Research shows that over half of businesses struggle to recruit qualified people for temporary positions during peak seasons.⁵

You can also consider whether you need to increase training for existing employees – cross-training them can boost workforce versatility and allow you to plug gaps when needed.⁶ This ties into other optimisation strategies – such as schedule management, performance monitoring, and promoting collaboration and flexibility – which are useful when increasing headcount is not viable.

There are some particular challenges for customer service at this time of year. For one it’s busy, which makes it harder to give customers the attention they deserve. In addition, you may also have lots of people buying from you for the first time, and you don’t get a second chance to make a good first impression.

To help navigate the difficulties, clear communication is essential. Make sure you say when orders need to be placed by to guarantee deliveries in time for Christmas, whether any products are out of stock, and whether there are any other seasonal changes such as longer delivery times. It’s also important to make sure you have enough customer service staff available – you can look back at last year to get an idea of demand. However, if you expect to be busy it may be worth investigating whether there are any automation tools you can employ to lighten the load.⁷

And you should also ensure your shipping is up to scratch – the festive season is the last time you want to let anybody down. So be aware of carrier cut-off dates and potential demand surcharges, and make sure you can keep customers up to date during their deliveries with tracking information and proactive updates.

Any year-end business planning should also consider the beginning of next year too. After all, returns from the festive season may occur in Q1 but they will need to be planned for well before that. But there are positive factors to consider too – such as keeping hold of any new customers you’ve acquired, or how to learn from this year so next year is even better.

Returns are an unavoidable part of e-commerce, and while they are never going to be welcome there are strategies you can use to minimise the pain. Offering as many returns options as you can is one, because the easier it is for customers to return items the easier it is for you too. And the more you can do to automate your returns processes internally – including issuing refunds – the better as it can reduce errors and lessen the workload.⁸

Other options include having an extended returns window, which can reduce pressure on your logistics network and warehouses.⁹ And having a simple shipping process for customers is vital, so make sure you offer clear instructions and easy wins such as pre-printed returns labels (and commercial invoices for international shipments).

Turning one-time shoppers into loyal customers is a key element in many small business strategies. It’s also a challenge, so plan ahead – effective customer engagement can help you win here, so think about what could work for your business. Personalised marketing, new year offers, even connecting on social or asking for constructive feedback – it can all help to deepen the connection and boost loyalty.¹⁰

There are several other strategies to think about too. Referral marketing, for instance, where customers get a discount if a friend makes a purchase, is a great way of attracting new customers and additional purchases from existing ones.¹¹ And remember that communication doesn’t just have to be about selling new products. SMBs can add value and strengthen engagement by offering useful content such as how-to guides or other brand-relevant information that customers might find interesting.¹²

Your performance in Q4 – when many businesses are at their busiest – can generate useful learnings that you can take into next year and beyond. One reason for this is because, along with the general sales, marketing and financial performance data you can gather, you can also better gauge how well your business operates when it’s under stress.

For example, did you manage to keep your promises on Christmas deliveries? Were you left short of inventory due to poor forecasting or problems with suppliers? Did you have issues with controlling cash flow? Did you maintain customer experience levels during the hectic period? Was your website fully operational all the time?

There are many other metrics too, but the better you understand how you stacked up against them – and the reasons for any shortfalls – the more you’ll be able to implement fixes that will improve your business.

Getting your business in the best shape for the crucial holiday period is essential if you are to maximise its potential, whether that’s in delighting existing customers or winning – and keeping – new ones. If you’d like to know more, then as well as the strategies outlined here there are other articles available on the SMB Hub that could help you – including our guide to winning last-minute spending.

Disclaimer: The information provided on this page does not constitute legal, tax, finance, accounting, or trade advice, but is designed to provide general information relating to business and commerce. The FedEx Small Business Hub content, information, and services are not a substitute for obtaining the advice of a competent professional, for example (but not limited to) a licensed attorney, law firm, accountant, or financial adviser.