TRENDS & INSIGHTS
Executive summary
The forces reshaping logistics and supply chain risk: Macroeconomic pressures, geopolitical instability, capacity constraints, and supplier vulnerabilities are creating widespread disruption, forcing businesses to adopt enterprise-grade risk management strategies.
Technology, automation, and data as the new performance drivers: End-to-end visibility platforms, AI planning tools, and affordable automation are becoming essential for reducing manual workload, predicting disruptions, and scaling operations efficiently.
The operational shifts required for 2026 readiness: Small and midsize organizations must rethink inventory strategies, diversify transportation and suppliers, adopt flexible labor models, and use KPIs to guide continuous improvement across warehousing, last-mile delivery, and omnichannel fulfillment.
The 2026 logistics horizon: what is changing and why it matters
Here are some of the forces that are shaping logistics in 2026.
Macroeconomic pressures
Inflation, rising wage expectations, and continued labor shortages will continue to impact both logistics and warehousing costs.
SMEs should expect higher transportation expenses and tighter capacity, especially during peak seasons. These conditions will force businesses to adopt more flexible models that balance cost control with continuity. At the same time, you cannot afford to wait. You must make sure your supply chain channels are in place and able to deliver.
Geopolitical disruptions
International tensions, regional conflicts, trade restrictions, and tariffs will continue to affect lane availability and supplier reliability. If you have a concentrated base of suppliers, your disruption risk increases. The most successful companies will identify secondary sources and shipping channels in their just-in-case planning.
Businesses looking for greater stability are also exploring nearshoring and regional diversification as a hedge. 58% of supply chain professionals ar e forecasting a move to more localized supply chains by 2030.1 More than three-quarters of companies are in the process of building regional networks already.2
Implications for SMEs
SMEs must now plan for logistics scenarios that have typically been reserved for global enterprises.
Even if you provide an exceptional customer experience, it doesn’t mean everyone in your supply chain can do so. You need to monitor performance and the financial health of your downstream suppliers, including Tier-2 and Tier-3 supply chains, to ensure you have the inventory you need when you need it.
Technology and data: building a modern logistics foundation
In 2026, technology will drive efficiency, leveraging scalable tools that can evolve as your logistics needs and volume change.
End-to-end visibility as a competitive advantage
Visibility platforms provide real-time shipment tracking, exceptions management, and predictive delivery timelines. 57% of supply chain professionals cite a lack of visibility as their top challenge.3 Yet, just 6% of businesses say they have full supply chain visibility.3
The average large enterprise is tracking more than 160,000 assets daily.4 While small and mid-size businesses may track far fewer, the need is just as important.
An integrated solution that connects with 3PLs, carriers, eCommerce platforms, yard management, and warehouse management software reduces the time for manual follow-ups and simplifies communication with customers. Modern solutions use APIs to streamline integration, eliminating the need for expensive custom IT development.
These tools help reduce manual follow-ups, simplify customer communication, and identify bottlenecks quickly. API-led integration allows systems to connect with 3PLs, carriers, e-commerce platforms, and warehouse software without requiring custom IT development.
AI and automation
Deloitte research finds that more than half of logistics leaders are increasing their investments in technology. While just 28% of companies are currently using AI, that number is expected to rise to 82% by 2029.5
You can use AI to identify:
- Slowing inventory turns
- Increasing dwell times
- Supplier and carrier performance
- Bottlenecks in fulfillment
- Replenishment and safety stock adjustments
AI-supported planning also enhances order accuracy by predicting delays, adjusting carrier selection, and optimizing routes before issues escalate.
While large enterprises may invest in full-scale robotics and dark warehouses that can push investments above $10 million, there are plenty of automation tools that are affordable for smaller companies, including:
- Automated sorting
- Labeling systems
- Collaborative picking carts
- Robotic process automation
- Automated invoice matching
These tools improve efficiency and throughput while also lowering error rates, all without requiring large upfront investments.
Inventory, demand, and the rising complexity of omnichannel commerce
Inventory strategy is becoming more intertwined with forecasting, fulfillment channels, and customer expectations. In 2026 and into the future, a focus on these areas will be crucial.
Demand sensing for faster consumer cycles
Traditional forecast cycles are simply too slow for modern retail and eCommerce.
Today, you can leverage demand sensing to pull from real-time inputs such as point-of-sale activity, marketplace sales, return patterns, seasonality signals, and promotional events. This helps you manage inventory more effectively, reducing stockouts or overstocks.
Rethinking safety stock and buffer strategies
In 2026, look for buffer inventory to shift from fixed levels to a more dynamic approach that accounts for market volatility and logistics concerns.
Companies can set tiered strategies across A, B, and C items, using higher buffers for high-risk items and leaner inventory for stable SKUs, improving service levels without increasing working capital.
Returns management as a profit lever
Returns and reverse logistics can dramatically cut into profit margins. The National Retail Federation reports that consumers are now sending back nearly 17% of annual sales, double the rate from just a few short years ago.6
SMEs can benefit from being proactive, including:
- Pre-labelling
- Return consolidation
- Rules-based dispositioning
- Automated inspection workflows
Omnichannel fulfillment requirements
Buy online and pick up in store (BOPIS), buy online, return in store (BORIS). The recent increase in ship-from-store and micro-fulfillment centers (MFCs). Reliance on 3PLs and 4PLs. Today, you must be able to track inventory, availability, pricing, routing, and logistics across all of your sales and fulfillment channels.
Transportation and the last mile: new ways to improve speed and control
Transportation networks are becoming more fragmented, cost-sensitive, and competitive. You need to evaluate your options, especially when it comes to last-mile delivery, which still accounts for more than half of all shipping costs on average.7
Carrier diversification strategies
Relying on a single parcel or freight carrier creates exposure and risk across your supply chain. Many companies saw this firsthand when some of the world’s largest trucking companies closed their doors in 2025.
Diversifying across national carriers, regionals, and niche last-mile providers helps stabilize costs and maintain service during capacity crunches. You can leverage your software solutions to carriers based on performance, lane cost, and customer location.
Dynamic routing and delivery optimization
Dynamic routing tools use real-time traffic patterns, weather conditions, and package density to optimize the most efficient delivery path. You can significantly improve fuel consumption and delivery accuracy with software today.
Urban distribution and micro-nodes
We’re seeing an increase in new regulations affecting delivery vehicles, emissions, and parking zones. Urban micro-nodes or shared-space fulfillment centers can reduce delivery times in dense areas to create more predictable service levels and impact costs.
Steps SMEs can take now
SMEs can start with multi-carrier performance dashboards, regular RFPs with carriers, or centralized delivery communication through visibility platforms.
Warehousing and fulfillment: the new models for 2026
Warehousing operators continue to struggle with challenges in hiring and retaining staff, even as wages for blue-collar workers grow 5-6% annually.8 To combat these challenges, there’s a decided shift toward hybrid labor models and selective automation.
Cost-effective automation approaches
Full-scale robotics is simply out of reach for many organizations. However, modular tools can streamline warehouse throughput. For example:
- RFID scanning and tracking
- IoT sensor monitoring
- Automated storage lifts
- Pick-to-light systems
These systems are also highly scalable, allowing you to align technology with need without having to make major purchases.
Flexible labor and cross-training models
Expect labor shortages to persist into 2026, which means a flexible workforce will be more important than ever. Warehouse operators can help protect themselves by cross-training employees to switch between tasks and fill in as needed during peak times.
Cross-training has been shown to improve productivity and response times. Research also shows you can reduce turnover as much as 25% as employees see more satisfaction and a greater sense of purpose.9
Shared facilities and micro-fulfillment
Businesses are increasingly exploring distributed storage nodes. This might include on-demand warehousing during peak seasons without long-term leases or locating smaller fulfillment centers or MFCs close to their end customers. This can reduce linehaul costs while also supporting faster fulfillment.
Supply chain resilience for businesses
Even one poor delivery experience can affect how customers feel about your company. You need reliability to provide the experience that inspires loyalty. Supplier diversification, risk monitoring, and contingency planning are critical.
Supplier diversification
Depending on one supplier or region increases your vulnerability. Building a secondary supplier network, including regional or domestic alternatives, is essential to overcome unforeseen situations, like geopolitical instability, natural disasters, or regional conflicts.
Risk scoring and continuous monitoring
Real-time monitoring has become a staple in modern logistics. Pulling data from ERP systems, supplier systems, and external risk feeds can help you monitor your risk. Today’s predictive analytics can identify even minor anomalies that increase your risk.
Scenario and contingency planning
You know things can change in a hurry. What’s worked smoothly for years can suddenly stop working. Consumer demand can shift in ways you can’t predict. Transportation availability, shipping costs, and labor costs can all increase without warning.
You need a backup plan for your biggest risks. Hopefully, you’ll never need them. But if you do, you don’t want to be left scrambling to fulfill orders.
Sustainability and cost-to-serve
Sustainability is a requirement for many businesses (and customers), but it’s also an opportunity for cost control in some areas. Options include:
- Consolidating shipments
- Adopting electric or hybrid delivery modes
- Selecting carriers with certified sustainability programs
Right-sizing packages, using lighter materials, and adopting recyclable content can also lower costs by reducing dimensional weight charges. Packaging is often one of the simplest ways to improve ROI.
Integrated shipping software can help you measure and report on your emissions to meet sustainability goals.
Collaboration and the expanding logistics ecosystem
With complexity and costs rising, collaboration within the logistics ecosystem can help, such as:
- Carrier and 3PL collaboration: Sharing data can help with forecasting and capacity planning to improve reliability and reduce operating costs.
- Marketplace and platform partnerships: Aggregating demand across multiple sellers creates cost advantages and access to distributed fulfillment nodes with multiple carriers.
However, this requires standardized data and reporting formats to integrate effectively with other providers and suppliers.
Talent and organizational design for the modern logistics team
Even the best software solutions alone can’t solve your logistics challenges. People remain critical, especially when it comes to exceptions-based management. Experience enables you to bring real-world expertise and urgency to problem-solving.
How do you get there? You need to train and upskill your team members. You may also need to rethink the roles you have and how you fire. For example, many companies of all sizes are investing in logistics data analysts, automation coordinators, and supplier partnership managers as they modernize workflow and supplier relationships.
Metrics and governance: what businesses should track
Creating a cycle of continuous improvement requires measuring the key metrics in your organization. In 2026, here are some of the KPIs are including in the tracking.
Visibility and reliability metrics
Key measures include:
- Shipment visibility rate
- Order tracking accuracy
- On-time delivery rate
- Exception frequency
Tracking these KPIs over time shows whether you are gaining better control over your logistics network.
Cost and productivity metrics
Key measures include:
- Cost to serve
- Picking productivity
- Warehouse labor cost per unit shipped
- Inventory turnover
These help you understand how efficiently resources are being used and where process improvements could have the greatest financial impact.
Resilience metrics
Key measures include:
- Supplier risk scores
- Backup activation time
- Disruption recovery time
Tracking these indicators shows how prepared your organization is for unexpected events and how quickly you can return to normal operations as issues arise.
Sustainability metrics
Key measures here include:
- Packaging utilization rated
- Emissions per shipment
- Packaging waste reduction
Doing so gives you increased visibility into your environmental performance and helps document your progress in meeting your sustainability commitments.
2026 logistics: continuing to evolve
Logistic professionals need to continue to expect the unexpected in 2026. Preparing for change is pivotal, and how well you adapt will be the difference between success and falling short. It’s all about building a resilient and redundant plan and finding continuous improvement to manage costs and deliver the exceptional customer experience your customers expect.
For more trends and insights, visit the FedEx Small Business Hub.
The information provided in this report does not constitute legal, tax, finance, accounting, or trade advice, but is designed to provide general information relating to business and commerce. Its content, information, and services are not a substitute for obtaining the advice of a competent professional, for example a licensed attorney, law firm, accountant, or financial adviser.
- Prologis Supply Chain Outlook Report 2026 | Prologis
- Supply Chains 2026: Less Globalization, More AI | Forbes
- Supply Chain Statistics | Procurement Tactics
- Asset Tracking Evolution: Locating Assets to Optimizing Operations | IoT Analytics
- New MHI and Deloitte Report Focuses on Orchestrating End-to-End Digital Supply Chain Solutions | Modern Materials Handling
- Reversing Into the Future: The Outlook for Circular Retail | NRF
- Cutting Last-Mile Delivery Costs | MIT Sloan Management Review
- Blue-Collar Wages Rise 5–6 Percent Annually | Deloitte
- How Cross-Training Employees Can Improve Productivity and Flexibility | Cornerstone Staffing